25. Trading Cycle Low

A Trading Cycle (TC) Low measures how the number of bars from low to low. 

Alpha Hunters TC LOW to LOW count is frequently from 16 to 28 bars from low to low.

At Alpha Hunters, we do not measure the TC low before 16 bars but will measure it if it happens past 28 bars.

All TC lows occur below the 15 period moving average.

Meaning that if the market is way above the 15 period moving average and it's been 25 plus bars from the last TC low, then one might expect the market to at least drop below the 15 period moving average, and that is correct.

Note: if the market is moving up, for example, the 15 period moving average price level will move up for each new bar. Meaning if you are expecting one price level drop, this level should move up for each new bar, and it is best to calculate this into your exit price if you sold into this

Note: The fade trade is the buy the TC low. Keep in mind all the other models; 

  • Where are indicators? Are they in the buy zones?
  • Where is the market in the cycle down count? Is it at least past 5 to 8 bars down on the shorter-term charts? 
  • Is the general trend up, sideways, etc.? 
  • Are the longer-term charts up? Do they have lots more time to move up, and you are playing the TC low on a shorter-term chart, 5m, 10m, 15m?

This short list is how we look at all trades models.

We combine them and put the trade puzzle together and no matter how good it may look, we suggest that you fish for fill prices to start the trade.

Try to avoid going all in on the first entry, but rather go fish and Fast Eddie (Scale) into trades.  Why? Because NO ONE can tell where the exact bottom is. NO ONE can! so, we propose to use the Go Fish money management ideas of scaling into trades and out of trades.

Another Trade opportunity - If the market is overdue for a TC low and the market is trading above the Moving Average, we start to outline a move back to the Moving Average soon to make that TC LOW.  

Trading Cycle Plot Automatically - The Alpha CT 04 CycleWave Indicator will automatically plot all the cycle counts and highlight the TC lows.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Futures, Options on Futures and Forex trading involves a substantial degree of risk of loss and is not suitable for all individuals. An investor could lose the entire investment or, in some cases, more than the initial investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.